Copy of Sentinel V22 #33-Progress With China?

Is It A Complex Situation or Simple Really?

Steve Dittmer | AFF Sentinel

Colorado Springs, CO

Originally sent to subscribers 05/02/25

A few days ago we listened to a China expert who had lived in Asia, and specifically China, for several years. Steven Mosher, president, Population Research Institute, told Jessie Kelly that China’s economy, already suffering, was collapsing now.  On the ground, “people are desperate,” (“I’m Right,” The First, 04/23/25).



The CCP is already discussing how to ration food and forcing officials and businessmen to return money they had stashed overseas, Mosher said.

Remember, this was several days ago, before reports leaked out that workers were demonstrating in the streets, protesting factory shutdowns, threatening to jump off roofs and complaining about missing paychecks from months ago.

Some 200 million people are involved in the export production sector of China’s economy. While at least 15 percent of China’s exports go directly to the U.S., additional exports are transshipped through Vietnam, Hong Kong and Indonesia, he said.

Ocean-going containers are piling up at major ports in China. Goods were ordered months ago and have now been cancelled. Dozens of container ships, owned by China, are offshore waiting for containers that may never come. Half of container voyages have already been cancelled, Mosher said.

Additionally, many of the goods have been produced specifically for the U.S. market. Europeans and Southeast Asians don’t put up artificial Christmas trees or buy $400-$500 trampolines.

Piles of shoes and clothes are being sold to the Chinese people at pennies on the dollar. Factories are being shut down and workers sent home. Streets are empty and shops catering to the workers are closed, at a ratio of two to three people for every factory worker. The business model for TEMU and others, built on the premise of no tariffs on shipments under $800 and shipped direct to U.S. customers, is gone, via Trump executive order.

Mosher provided some interesting perspective on the change in Chinese society from when he lived in villages and rural areas of China.

He explained, in more detail than we can here, that decades ago, the out-of-work Chinese workers could have gone back to their rural villages, their family and had a place to live and fields to work. The workers today were raised by their grandparents back at the villages, while their parents worked in the city. Now, the villages are populated only by old people or not at all. The parents and their children have no place to go back to. They are trapped in the cities, with no jobs and what today is termed “food insecurity.”

Mosher eventually expects food riots. The problem is, there’s this thing called the People’s Armed Police. These are military units that were transferred in to the police force after Tiananmen Square.  There are one million military personnel with tanks, armored personnel carriers and heavy artillery. They are specifically there to prevent rebellion against the CCP.

Mosher expects turmoil. There could be millions going to bed hungry every night. There could be, for the first time since the 1960s, famine in China. China cannot feed itself. Fully one-third of the grain like soybeans and corn they use is imported.

Mosher is hoping Xi will be focused so much on domestic problems that he won’t be tempted to conduct “foreign adventures” to distract and unify the people. But it is going to be a “close thing.”

Gordon Chang thinks Xi doesn’t have enough control of the military to do that anyway.

Xi has already told the Chinese people that “they must be prepared to eat bitterness.” He means be prepared for hard times, not to miss some meals, but to starve to death, Mosher said.

As for replacing the U.S. market that is at least 15 percent, some say 20 percent, of Chinese exports, the next biggest customer is Vietnam at 4 percent. China, at least in the short-term, cannot make up that big a slice of the market, Mosher said. He estimated 20 million workers will be added to the unemployed in the next couple months.

Added, because the youth unemployment rate is already estimated at 40 percent.

Millions of people in coastal cities will have no jobs and not be able to afford food.

For perspective from another source, Michael Pillsbury, Heritage Foundation China expert, said Thursday it’s starting to look like Trump’s strategy, patience and expressions of goodwill towards Xi and the Chinese people are working. China has progressed from denying they are talking to the Trump team, to saying now that there is no harm in talking.

China is a civilization based on nuance. But officials were “very much frightened” by the list of 24 concessions the White House issued April 3 that any country would have to address in negotiations. It was a summary but not detailed. Chinese officials have been trying to find out through government and business contacts in Washington what they would have to give once talks started.

Trump has been “genius” in being vague, very supportive -- saying he doesn’t want the “Chinese economy to be hurting people,” Pillsbury said.

One report said 60 million Chinese workers could lose their jobs if the trade war continues.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Chinese economy is slowing down substantially.  It is difficult to be a good consumer in China, he noted.

Pillsbury said both sides need to re-balance together. Our consumption portion of GDP is roughly 70 percent. Chinese domestic consumption portion of their GDP is 35 percent. The CCP keeps salaries and wages depressed to leave more of GDP for the priorities of the CCP.

Trump has said we have helped build China. I think he thinks it’s time for China to help Make American Great Again, Pillsbury said.

The question: what affect could pressure between Xi and idled Chinese workers cause? Will there be a coup or will Xi be placing a call to Trump?



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