Copy of AFF Sentinel V22 #26-Liberation Day Aftermath Begins
- Steve Dittmer
- Jul 22
- 5 min read
And We Thought It Was Wild Before?
Steve Dittmer | AFF Sentinel
Colorado Springs, CO
Originally sent to subscribers 04/07/25
The tariff situation reminds us of the chaos of the wild horse race at Cheyenne Frontier Days. And we are at the beginning of the contest.
Most regard the tariff figures President Trump announced as the starting point for negotiations on tariffs, non-tariff barriers, subsidies and currency manipulation. We say “most” as tough guy Peter Navarro doesn’t see it that way.
In all, more than 50 countries have asked for meetings, which has got to be gratifying to Trump. But meetings are the start, not the finish. But the economic pressure will be prominent and useful in getting relatively fast results, instead of the usual diplomatic side stepping that yields little.
The USTR report on trade barriers by foreign countries is 397 pages long, listing barriers from roughly 60 different countries.
Cattlemen are much more likely to be familiar with the concept of non-tariff trade barriers, since there are countries or groups, like the EU, who have used them brutally against us. Fox News ran interviews with a couple of cattlemen Monday supporting the idea that Trump’s tariff moves could benefit the beef industry, especially as regards to non-tariff trade barriers.
However, the network reporters didn’t accurately understand our numbers with Australia. Yes, we import lean beef from Australia, but the $29 billion they mentioned has happened over many years, not annually as implied. Last year was a big year, importing roughly $4 billion of lean beef to mix with our 50/50 trim to satisfy American consumer demand for ground beef.
Two of our biggest overseas beef customer countries have quickly contacted the Trump Administration for meetings to address the tariff situation: South Korea (25 percent tariff) and Japan (24 percent tariff) have reached out to discuss what they can do to get lower or get rid of the tariffs. They have not mentioned retaliatory tariffs.
The number three customer, China, has instead levied a 34 percent retaliatory tariff that we assume applies to beef. They have claimed the Trump Administration has not responded for talks before the April 2 tariff announcements. We find that a bit hard to believe.
We were encouraged by EU officials indicating they would be amenable to zero tariffs both ways -- on industrial products, including cars. No mention of agricultural products. If you’ll recall, talks with the EU broke down last time because Trump insisted on ag products being part of the negotiations and the EU refused.
Noted China authority Gordon Chang thinks President Xi will hang tough and not ask for meetings with Trump for months. China’s economy is not in good shape and he really needs to get busy and negotiate with Trump. But Chang told Mark Levin this weekend that Xi may have serious political problems going on behind the scenes, that would behoove tough guy tactics from him right now. It will be interesting to see if Trump can get him to the table.
Trump has threatened to go to 50 percent if China doesn't straighten up and fly right. Retaliation brings more consequences.
China has allowed plant registration for U.S. beef plants to expire in March. They did that for pork plants, but then renewed them in a short period. But that was before the bigger tariffs were dropped April 2.
Breitbart Business Digest economist John Carney described the across-the-board 10 percent tariffs as a “cover charge” for accessing the U.S. market.
We suppose that’s a good way of looking at it but to show you how much things have changed, we had to take our pocketknives back to the car and be patted down to get into a cowboy dance hall a few weeks ago.
The special tariffs on “bad actors” was calculated based on the trade balance with those countries. Countries with large surpluses, that export a lot more into the U.S. than we export to them, got higher tariff rates. The ten percent is not a reciprocal tariff if they have a trade deficit with us already. It will also serve as a partial barrier to transshipping goods to get around tariffs, like China shipping parts to Mexico or Vietnam, making minor changes and then exporting from that secondary country to the U.S.
We guess that assembling all the info from all the countries we trade with was impossible in the time frame Trump set for the team. The calculation method they used has generated some criticism. No scalpel -- or pocketknife -- here.
Using the trade balance calculation may have an added benefit. In negotiating with individual countries, it may act similarly to discovery in legal cases. We might discover trade barriers we didn’t know about or have accurate figures on.
It will, for all cases, force attention on non-tariff trade barriers. As the beef industry well knows, access is critical. It doesn’t matter what the tariff rate is if it is difficult or impossible to get around the barriers. The EU is a perfect example. They decided that growth promotants would work as a very effective barrier in keeping U.S. beef out of their market because they were very prevalent here.
Our good friend Bob Josserand was NCBA president in 1989 when the EU pulled this stunt, holding that their research indicated that growth promotants were not safe, even though the toughest hurdle in the world -- the U.S. regulatory system -- had found no such scientific evidence. Only a small percentage of American beef was produced with no growth promotants at any stage, so the EU had a very effective trade barrier. We’re still dealing with that barrier some 36 years later.
Carney also talked about another way countries could negotiate better terms that would help their own workers. In many developing countries, the profits go to a small circle of owners. But agreeing to pass more of the profits to their workers in the form of better wages could make them better and more capable customers for American goods. Win/win.
And humanitarian points, to boot.
USTR Jamieson Greer put it this way: it is not our job to provide an outlet for foreign countries exporting their lack of domestic demand.
Charles Payne of Fox Business channel showed charts of 16 different non-tariff trade barriers countries come up with to keep U.S. products out or make it difficult to qualify. In the past, officials say they would conduct lots of long discussions about tariffs and barriers with countries. They’d say they would discuss these issues later and nothing would ever happen. That game is over.
By the way, the House is supposed to vote on the Senate budget resolution this week. It will be like the wild horse race again. The Senate and the House are a couple trillion apart on spending cuts and some House members are none too happy.
Our address: Agribusiness Freedom Foundation, P.O. Box 88179, Colorado Springs, CO. 80908.
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