Copy of AFF Sentinel V22 #16-Taming March’s Lions
- Steve Dittmer
- Jul 22
- 5 min read
Congress Will Struggle With All This
Steve Dittmer | AFF Sentinel
Colorado Springs, CO
Originally sent to subscribers 03/03/25
There are several key economic drivers in the hands of government right now. For one, government funding authority extends to just March 14. Congress will have to come up with something or there will be a government shutdown. Secondly, the House and Senate have to get together on a reconciliation bill. Neither is anything but a heavy lift.
Some folks are pushing for a Continuing Resolution (CR) until the end of the fiscal year, Sept. 30, that continues spending authority at current levels, with House Speaker Johnson on that track. But others are tired of constantly funding the government with short-term CRs, leaving everyone in constant uncertainty. Sen. John Barrasso reminded folks that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer refused to bring appropriation bills to the floor last year, leaving Congress with CR after CR to fund the government.
Democrats lean towards a short-term 30-day CR to allow time for negotiations, ostensibly to add things they want in the bill. There doesn’t seem to be much appetite for legislation based on the incredible things Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is uncovering until next year’s 2026 budget. Democrats are just furious over DOGE -- seemingly not so much over what they are finding but that they are finding it -- and many are in a surly mood, difficult to work with on anything.
In fact, they are trying to come up with language in a CR specifying how many employees every agency has to have, as well as trying to tie President Trump and Elon Musk’s hands in their efforts to cut programs and expenses. The very idea of spending cuts or reducing the number of government employees just infuriates them.
Having to come up with some kind of solution to funding the government at the same time they are working on a reconciliation bill complicates things for a body not good at handling complexities. Add to that the April 30 deadline to beat to pass appropriations bills or else automatic cuts are triggered and that’s a lot for Congress.
The economic data about January reflects an economy fostered by lots of wrongheaded moves by the past administration and Congress. That’s why inflation is still here -- “sticky” -- it’s termed by some. Right now, the Atlanta Fed’s tracking data is projecting a negative 2.8 percent (revised from -1.5 last week) GDP for this quarter so far. Retail sales were down for January. Capital expenditures have lagged and manufacturing is just in a holding pattern. Unemployment applications were a little higher than expected.
It is somewhat perversely refreshing to see economists blaming January’s retail sales tailing off on cold, snowy weather. Ever notice that outright blizzards on the Plains are hardly mentioned in the national news but a few inches of gentle white in New York or D.C. is a national calamity?
Yet, early data on, February is encouraging as the economy is in a holding pattern, with tariffs, Trump moves and murky situations in Congress keeping uncertainty ascendant. Not everyone believes the Atlanta Fed tracking data is solid this time. But there is enough cautionary evidence out there one would think to convince Congress that they had better get their act in gear, especially on the tax action citizens, businesses and investors expect.
Newt Gingrich reminded us that Ronald Reagan inherited a terrible economy from Jimmy Carter. But tax cuts, deregulation and spending cuts turned things around. Trump can do the same, with the added benefit of Elon Musk’s spending cuts and some energy price cuts.
But it does lend credence to the call for a reconciliation bill, including tax cuts, ASAP. Part of it is actual dollars and cents but first we need certainty for markets, businesses and consumers to create some optimism. Part of that tax reform should be 100 percent expensing, which would get some of the fastest boosts to the economy, Steve Forbes has pointed out.
Meanwhile, the majority of citizens are happy that the Trump Administration has hit the ground running, with all of his appointments getting right on the stick, carrying out what Trump promised to do. But both politicians and public employee unions are shocked that shrinking the size of government might affect them or people they know. DOGE started out with dismissing workers logically enough who were still on probation.
Typical, though, of government practice, instead of the 30- or 60- or 90-day probation period prevalent in the private sector, the federal government considers a year’s probation as standard. Some folks have yelled they were still on probation three years after starting. We guess they would have been established in the community by then and be shocked at being cut loose.
There were some cut loose who then had to be hired back but the poor management within government makes things more difficult. From what we’ve read, the disorganized state of affairs in USDA or Interior, for example, resulting in key people being fired and re-hired illustrates key problems within government itself. Then there are the media’s twisting of things that haven’t happened, like firing air traffic controllers.
Mexico is now putting tariffs on Chinese imports and suggested Canada ought to do the same. Mexico has even suggested a North American free trade zone, John Carney of Breitbart Business Digest said.
The Trump Administration was still saying Monday night that tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China were coming March 4. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt laid out some figures Monday. The fentanyl that crossed the southern border in 2024 alone was enough to kill 4.8 billion people. While much smaller, the 9.8 million people that the fentanyl that crossed the northern border last year was a 2,050 percent increase from 2023.
If you’re curious as to what budget numbers Congress is working on, here are the targets, according to CBS.
The House bill outlines budget targets by committee.
Increases:
-$110 billion for the Judiciary Committee
-$100 billion for Armed Services
-$90 billion for Homeland Security Committee
Decreases, at least:
-$880 billion for Energy and Commerce Committee
-$330 billion for Education and Workforce Committee
-$230 billion for Agriculture Committee
-$50 billion for Oversight and Government Reform Committee
$10 billion for Transportation and Infrastructure Committee
-$1 billion for Financial Services Committee
-$1 billion for Natural Resources Committee
Notes: Medicaid falls under the Energy and Commerce Committee. Trump and the Republicans have pledged not to cut Medicaid but point to evidence of widespread fraud and abuse that can save billions. Democrats, of course, are accusing Republicans of conspiring to cut Medicaid for poor people to enable tax cuts for the rich.
Our address: Agribusiness Freedom Foundation, P.O. Box 88179, Colorado Springs, CO. 80908.
To support the work of AFF, you can contribute with any major credit cards here:
Or,
If you wish to use your Paypal acct. click below: