Copy of AFF Sentinel V22 #12-Trump Whirlwind & Cattlecon Mood
- Steve Dittmer
- Jul 22
- 4 min read
Trump Keeps Things Moving, Convention Optimistic But Wary of Changing World
Steve Dittmer | AFF Sentinel
Colorado Springs, CO
Originally sent to subscribers 02/13/25
President Trump finally cleared up some tariff questions Thursday, formalizing what had been discussed for months -- reciprocal tariffs. That is, whatever tariff percentage a country is charging us, that is what we will charge them.
And the House put forward one big reconciliation bill Thursday, advancing one a one-bill track while the Senate is still working on a two-bill track.
Several government departments have been charged with examining the tariff situations with all countries and reporting in by April 1. That means April 2 will be the deadline for countries to have adjusted their tariffs.
The pundits concerned that this will automatically be inflationary don’t take into account the ability of companies to adjust their prices accordingly to remain competitive and keep their market share. Consumers can then make the final decision what to buy. That makes the inflationary impact very hard to figure ahead of time and makes it a very individual decision based on consumer decisions.
But it is hard to argue with the fairness of a reciprocal approach to tariffs. Trump also reminded everyone that if the goods are produced in the U.S., there will be no tariff. That is part of his efforts to create conditions like lower taxes and lower regulations to encourage businesses to operate here.
Trump did mention that he would be fine with no one paying any tariffs on either side. Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council director, pointed out that the U.S. was paying $370 billion a year in tariffs to other countries while we were only collecting $57 billion in tariffs.
If there are non-tariff trade barriers, the U.S. will assign a value to them and figure it in to the tariff amount.
That could be interesting for us, for example, when applied to the non-tariff trade barriers the EU slaps on U.S. meat products, like bans on acetic acid rinses or growth promotants.
The EU has a 10 percent tariff on American cars vs. the 2.5 percent U.S. tariff on European cars. But there is a VAT (value added tax) charged on purchases in all EU countries, ranging from 19 to 27 percent. For the purchaser, 25 percent VAT on top of a ten percent tariff is a serious chunk of change.
There was not much mention of the situation with Canada and Mexico, except Trump said he has talked frequently with Prime Minister Trudeau. There has been news of both countries stepping up efforts at controlling human and drug trafficking, which is encouraging.
As for the key reconciliation bills vital to Trump’s effect on the economy, the House’s bill includes tax cuts, border security, defense spending and energy policy.
The House will be out of session next week, so the bill would not advance to the floor before Feb. 24.
There is lots of nuance to the House’s framework and we will fill out those details soon.
The Senate is still working on a two-bill track approach.
There is also nervous maneuvering on a government spending bill, which will be due March 14.
In other developments in Washington, RFK Jr. received Senate confirmation, with Sen. Mitch McConnell the only dissenting vote, just as he was with Tulsi Gabbard.
Kennedy told Fox’s Jesse Watters that he was not interested in banning what foods people want to eat but to make sure they were safe and people knew any risks. He is quite adamant that there are too many things in some foods that people are unaware of. That could veer off into many different outcomes.
He is very interested in the SNAP and other nutrition programs and expects to work on them with newly confirmed incoming Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. That would put the two of them in place to review the Dietary Guidelines report from the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC), which calls for plant-based diets over meat and dairy products. We could hope for insistence on a more balanced approach to nutrition policy from them.
Kennedy has said there is too much one-sided influence from major food corporations in our food supply. It will be interesting if he applies that logic to one-sided, plant-based representation on the DGAC, as Nina Teicholz has pointed to with anti-animal products, pro-plant based representation on the DGAC for years.
Government Skeptic Department: whatever skullduggery you thought was going on with your tax money, we’re guessing in your wildest dreams you never imagined things as preposterous as what DOGE is unearthing. There is a list of incredible projects the government has been funding. But there is another big one that perfectly embodies the left’s mantra of the end justifies the means.
New EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin referenced a video from several weeks ago from someone inside the EPA explaining that the Biden EPA was “throwing gold bars off the Titanic” before Trump came in. Trump’s EPA team has discovered $20 billion stashed in secret slush fund bank accounts, intended to be distributed through a network of NGOs and other channels to fund environmental justice and climate equity activity without anyone in Trump Administration knowing or affecting it.
Kind of reminds you of George Soros bequeathing billions to his groups so that they can continue haunting us after he is gone.
As for the convention, besides general optimism and encouraging numbers and interpretation from Cattle-Fax, perhaps the most fascinating news was research on finding the needed data to revise the Yield Grade equation that has been the same for over 60 years. Cattle-Fax re-iterated that cattle numbers will continue tight for at least another year or so and despite higher prices, consumer demand in 2024 was the second highest in 37 years.
Biggest concerns: short-term -- animal health concerns with bird flu that need to be addressed; long-term for processors -- added capacity coming on line in a time of tight numbers.
Our address: Agribusiness Freedom Foundation, P.O. Box 88179, Colorado Springs, CO. 80908.
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